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BREXIT DEAL COULD SEEK ANOTHER EXTENSION IF THE PARLIAMENT OPPOSE SATURDAY VOTING

PM Boris Johnson has announced a revised Brexit deal between the UK and the EU. Parliament to vote on Saturday for the chance for the Brexit deal approval amid 31 October deadline. Experts are hoping for an economic recession around the UK and there could be violence in Northern Ireland because of the Brexit deal or No Deal. Opposition are set to oppose the deal in Parliament voting on Saturday.


Mohammad Saifullah, Oct 19, 2019

The UK joined the European Union in 1973 when it was named as the European Economic Community. On 23 June 2016, the high turnout (72%) public referendum with 52% to 48% pushes UK to decide whether they want to stay with EU or leave still hang on the knife situation as the UK facing 31 October deadline to negotiate the issue.

The MPs rejected the bill for three times as the intended due for Brexit was on 29 March 2019. There was a reason of rejection behind the then Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit Bill as MPs were concerned about UK economy, assuming that it may fall on trap with EU’s customs union that could prevent the UK to striking deal with other countries. Boris Johnson took over as PM after Theresa May resigned.

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Again, the announcement from Boris Johnson on 17 October triggered the issue a hot topic as UK-EU has agreed on revised Brexit deal.

According to BBC News:

“Under the plan, the whole of the UK will leave the customs union and the UK will be free to sign and implement its trade agreements with countries around the world. Northern Ireland will also remain an entry point into the EU's customs zone. The UK will not apply tariffs to products entering Northern Ireland, as long as they are not destined to be sent across the border into the Republic of Ireland. Northern Ireland will continue to follow EU regulations for agrifood and industrial goods. After four years, the Northern Ireland Assembly will have the opportunity to vote on whether Northern Ireland should continue the arrangement.”

Yet, Johnson has to convince the MPs to a last chance of Brexit deal approve vote in Parliament which is scheduled on Saturday with at least 318 votes in the 650-seat parliament. But the three main opposition with DUP-the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party intended to oppose and get the bill down

If Johnson wins the race, UK will be the first country to exit from the EU and Johnson become the first leader who will bring out the UK from the EU for good or bad. But if he looses will face a humiliating political situation in the UK as he kept promising to get it done. The lawmakers have two options, but they are in confusion to either to approve the deal or not as it would worsen the relationship between the UK and other EU countries and beyond.

The future is uncertain yet here, as there is no confirmation of exit deal and lawmakers brought the situation to oppose. Thousands of people are marching outside the parliament for no Brexit deal. It would bring UK to face worsts geopolitical issue after World War II.

The DUP is waiting to oppose the bill and encourage others to get the bill down. "We will be encouraging (other lawmakers to vote against) because we believe it does have an impact on the unity of the United Kingdom, will spark further nationalist sentiment in Scotland and will be detrimental to the economy of Northern Ireland," the DUP's Sammy Wilson said.

"Voting this down Saturday is not the end of the game, in fact, it probably opens up possibilities for the government which are not available at present after a general election."

Without the DUP's 10 votes, Johnson will need Brexit-supporting Labour Party rebels to support his deal. Saturday's vote will be "pretty close" but likely just fall short, John McDonnell, the second most powerful man in the opposition Labour Party said.

"I don't believe it will pass, I think it will be defeated but the numbers are going to be pretty close”, McDonnell told Sky News.

If the vote is a tie, then the speaker of parliament, John Bercow, would hold the deciding vote. According to the vague convention, the speaker would seek to keep the issue open for further discussion.

The next option belongs to the lawmakers, if they approve the bill, it would again delay the Brexit deal as the lawmakers have to pass a withdrawal bill in Parliament.

If PM Johnson fails on Saturday voting, he must seek the third extension for Brexit deal. Because MPs have passed a law - known as the Benn Act - that requires Mr Johnson to ask for a Brexit delay if Parliament fails to sign off a deal. This will push the deadline back from 31 October to 31 January 2020.

Mr Jonson still hoping to get it down by 31 October though there is no explanation how he might do it. Would it be a solution to have an early election? The MPs have rejected the idea after Mr Johnson tried for an early election while lawmakers voted for extending the Brexit deadline.

Experts are hoping for disruption in the post-Brexit era, as it will allow the EU to carry out checks on British goods. This could lead to delaying the process on ports, traffic bottlenecks and disruptions on supply routes.

Some goods’ price would change because of the delay in ports and eventually, it would be the reason for the sharp Pound fall. This would finally trap the UK’s economy for years.

Although, Mr Johnson tried to clam the fear situation by announcing an extra £2.1bn of funding to prepare for the no-deal outcome. But economists are not sure about the long- or short-term economic harm because of the no-deal result.

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